Abstract
The object of the study is the agriculture of Central Asian countries. The problem addressed in the study is the insufficient understanding of differences in the effects of Internet use and mobile connectivity on fertilizer use intensity and food production. It remains insufficiently studied whether these effects are associated with agrochemical resource management, long-run adaptation, and diminishing returns from fertilizers. The empirical basis is a balanced panel dataset for 1992–2022, comprising 155 observations. Estimation used a panel Error Correction Model (ECM) with Driscoll-Kraay robust standard errors. The results show an asymmetric effect of ICT channels. In the long run, Internet use increases fertilizer use intensity (0.0047; p < 0.05), whereas mobile connectivity reduces it (–0.0055; p < 0.05). In the short run, only Internet use remains significant (0.0178; p < 0.01). Fertilizer use intensity has a negative long-run effect on food production (–0.0766; p < 0.05). Their direct effect on food production is not confirmed. The results are consistent with an indirect channel of ICT influence through fertilizer management. The nonlinear model confirms diminishing returns. The coefficient for the squared term of fertilizer use intensity is negative and significant (–0.0489; p < 0.05). This result is obtained by considering Internet use and mobile connectivity separately as ICT channels and by accounting for short-run, long-run, and nonlinear effects. Internet use is associated with access to heterogeneous information, while mobile connectivity is associated with coordination with suppliers and consultants. The results can be used to develop mobile advisory services, improve fertilizer management, and refine digital policy in Central Asian agriculture