Abstract
Low-carbon energy transition is critical for fossil-energy-dependent economies under global carbon neutrality goals. Taking China and Kazakhstan as comparative cases, this study develops a dynamic evaluation framework for low-carbon energy transformation readiness from 2015 to 2024. An entropy-weighted composite evaluation model is used to measure readiness from four dimensions: energy structure and carbon lock-in, low-carbon energy development, clean electricity development, and renewable energy demand pressure. An obstacle degree model is then applied to identify the key structural constraints.The results show that China's readiness level remained consistently higher than Kazakhstan's and followed an overall upward trend, driven mainly by renewable energy expansion, low-carbon electricity development, and declining electricity carbon intensity. Kazakhstan remained constrained by fossil fuel dependence, high electricity carbon intensity, and limited clean energy supply. Obstacle analysis indicates that fossil fuel dependence and electricity carbon intensity are common barriers in both countries, while China faces stronger pressure from energy demand growth and Kazakhstan faces greater constraints from insufficient renewable and low-carbon energy development. The study contributes by integrating dynamic readiness evaluation with obstacle factor identification and provides comparative evidence for low-carbon transformation in fossil-energy-dependent economies.