Abstract
The events that took place in January 2022 in Kazakhstan drew attention to the risks and threats to national security. Demographic processes are among the most important factors, but unlike political events, have a greater latent inertia, longtime prerequisites and long-term consequences. The article observes the correlation between the change in the ethnic structure of Kazakhstani cities, the dynamics of fertility rate of the urban population and the increase of social risks. The study methodology is based on: the method of assessing the correlation by K. Pearson, the method of clustering built on the detection of tight links between the processes and the calculation of the fluctuation amplitude between the demographic extremes, the use of case study on separate Kazakhstani cities. The data presented in the Cases reveal features and trends in the development of Kazakhstani cities, as well as the reproductive scenarios that dominate them. The result of the research is the conclusion about the increasing polarization of reproductive scenarios within a unified demographic system and, as a result, a possible aggravation of the internal social-political and social-economic situation, which will have a reciprocating nature in the foreseeable future.