Abstract
Kazakhstan, as the largest greenhouse gas emitter in Central Asia, has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060; however, most of the country's major industrial companies lack integrated climate risk management systems amid tightening global regulation. The objective is to develop an analytical framework for managing climate risks and opportunities for large industrial companies in Kazakhstan based on empirical data from 2010-2024. Methods. The study employed greenhouse gas emissions time-series analysis, ordinary least squares correlation-regression analysis, a multi-factor scenario forecast through 2060, and a climate risk matrix based on the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) methodology. The information base comprised data from the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan, the International Energy Agency, and annual reports of the largest emitting companies. Results. Greenhouse gas emissions in 2024 reached a record 368.5 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent. The coefficient of determination for the relationship between carbon quota prices and the share of renewable energy was 0.974. Under the inertial scenario, operating costs of the largest emitters are projected to increase by 18-34% by 2035. Conclusions. An original four-level model for managing climate risks and opportunities has been developed, adapted to Kazakhstan's regulatory conditions and enabling companies to convert growing regulatory pressure into a source of long-term competitive advantages.