Abstract
The article examines a model of atmospheric entry for a deorbiting spacecraft (SC), in which key parameters mass, aerodynamic drag coefficient, and cross-sectional area vary with altitude. This allows the model to capture the main changes occurring as the SC descends into denser atmospheric layers, including heating, ablation, and partial structural loss.Two entry scenarios are considered. The first assumes that the SC preserves its external shape, while the second includes the destruction of outer components. For both cases, downrange distances were calculated at different entry velocities and flight-pathangles, resulting in thermal maps of the predicted impact range.The modeling shows that structural breakup increases the downrange distance by about 25–27 km, a trend observed in all scenarios. The results demonstrate that even a simplified breakup model can significantly affect entry dynamics and may be used to predict impact footprints and support deorbiting planning.