Assessment of Carbon Transition Risks in Kazakhstan’s Industrial Economy

Lena KHUANYSH, Zh. D. Dauletkhanova, Zh. K. Mizambekova, Dana BAIKENOVA

The economy strategy and practice, 2026

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DOI 10.51176/1997-9967-2026-2-23-39
Data confidence 70 medium
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Abstract

The transition to a low-carbon economy is increasing pressure on industrial companies, especially in resource-dependent countries where a significant share of production, exports, and investment is tied to carbon-intensive sectors. The purpose of the article is to assess the risks of the carbon transition in Kazakhstan's industrial economy and to identify the main factors influencing enterprises' carbon risk levels. The methodological basis of the study includes the calculation of the composite carbon risk index (CRI), correlation analysis, panel regression with fixed effects, and the construction of a matrix of carbon transition risks and opportunities. The empirical base of the study covers the period 2011-2025 and includes data from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, reports from international organizations, as well as annual and ESG reports from 12 large industrial companies in Kazakhstan. The results show that for 2011-2025. The CRI index decreased from 0.72 to 0.53, and the industry's carbon intensity decreased by 18.4%. Panel regression showed that the main factors of carbon risk are carbon intensity of production (β=0.614; p<0.001), outdated equipment (β=0.441; p<0.01), and green financing (β=-0.383; p<0.01). The model explains 71.2% of the intra-company variation in CRI. The greatest reduction in risk was noted in the electric power industry (-31.8%), the lowest in the mining sector (-8.8%). The results confirm the need for technological modernization, expansion of green financing, and the development of industry-specific mechanisms to manage carbon transition risks.