Abstract
The development of high-speed and heavy-haul railway traffic leads to an increase in dynamic stresses in rails, resulting in the formation of hidden fatigue cracks. Such defects are among the most dangerous because they cannot be detected by visual inspection and failure occurs suddenly without warning. In recent years, the primary direction of railway safety improvement has shifted from mere defect detection to quantitative assessment of defect severity and prediction of the rail residual life. This paper analyzes modern rail non-destructive testing (NDT) instruments, including ultrasonic, eddy current, magnetic, acoustic emission, and intelligent diagnostic systems. Their operating principles, sensitivity to various defect types, inspection depth, and fields of application are considered. Particular attention is given to phased array ultrasonic testing and high-speed inspection vehicles providing continuous in-motion monitoring of track condition. A methodology for quantitative assessment of hidden crack severity based on the fracture energy criterion and the stress intensity factor is proposed. A calculation model is developed to determine the probability of rail failure considering defect parameters, stress state, and traffic conditions. A calculation example for a standard R65 rail is presented. The results show that integrating multi-channel defectoscopy with mathematical residual life prediction reduces the probability of rail fracture by more than three times. The obtained relationships can be applied for transitioning from periodic inspections to a risk-based track maintenance system.