Abstract
Purpose: The present study aims to comprehensively identify and quantify the factors determining the dynamics of the tourism sector in the metropolitan area of Shymkent from 2018 to 2024. Methods: The research applies an interdisciplinary methodology that goes beyond the descriptive approach common in existing studies. Results: The findings show that Shymkent’s acquisition of megacity status in 2018 became a catalyst for transforming its tourism model from a historically oriented model to one dependent on infrastructure development. Quantitative analysis confirms the high elasticity of tourist traffic in relation to investment, which reached 73 billion tenge by 2024. The investment factor was found to be statistically more significant than seasonal climate fluctuations (p < 0.05). Conclusion: The scientific novelty of the study lies in the first formal quantification of weighting coefficients contributing to the climatic attractiveness of southern Kazakhstan. The research also develops a predictive model linking the demographic growth of Shymkent, with a population of 1.22 million, to visit frequency. Its practical significance is supported by the use of digital monitoring tools such as “Secret Guest” and “Feedback Form” for managing service quality based on big data analysis.