Abstract
Relevance. One of the main challenges for the economies of developing countries, including Kazakhstan, has been the slowdown of economic growth and the emergence of the middle-income trap. Alongside the identification of national-level conditions for overcoming the middle-income trap, it is equally important to consider regional disparities in development. Research objective. The purpose of this article is to examine the impact of national- and regional-level factors on the formation of the middle-income trap in Kazakhstan. Data and methods. The analysis used data from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Agency for Strategic planning and reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the World Development Indicators Database. The index method was used to assess the risk of poverty among the working population and the middle-income trap. Correlation and regression analysis was used to test hypotheses about the influence of factors on GNI growth using the SPSS software package. The matrix method was used to assess changes in the socio-economic development of regions. Results. The article reviews the main theories and concepts of the middle-income trap. A correlation and regression analysis of factors influencing GNI per capita was conducted, revealing strong relationships with value added in medium- and high-tech manufacturing, GDP per person employed, fixed capital investment per capita, and the minimum wage relative to the poverty level. The study shows that, alongside other factors, Kazakhstan needs to address the persistence of strong poverty and inequality factors in the labor market. It is noted that, to reduce in-work poverty, the minimum wage should be raised above the poverty threshold and gradually increased to 60 % of the median wage. It is also shown that an important area for understanding the nature of and reducing the gap between regions is the analysis of the ratio between Gross Regional Product (GRP) per capita and GVA per person employed. Conclusions. Key recommendations include: strengthening the selective nature of industrial policy in attracting foreign direct investment to foster technological upgrading; improving intergovernmental fiscal relations to narrow regional disparities and promote inclusive development; implementing proactive labor market measures to mitigate the negative impact of in-work poverty, including the gradual increase of the minimum wage to at least 60 % of the median wage; and reducing persistent income inequality through the introduction of progressive taxation mechanisms.