Abstract
Kazakhstan's agro-industrial complex is a key sector that ensures food security and the country's sustainable economic development. The study aims to assess the impact of investments on agricultural productivity and their share in gross domestic product, accounting for lag effects. The initial data includes annual statistical indicators of the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan for the period 2015-2024. The methodological basis consists of correlation analysis, calculation of Pearson correlation coefficients, and multidimensional analysis of variance (MANCOVA), followed by a univariate decomposition of effects. The results showed that investments in the non-resource sector demonstrate the strongest positive relationship with labor productivity in agriculture (r = 0.959), while private investments also have a high correlation (r = 0.882). On the contrary, the agricultural investment index has no significant impact on production indicators (r = -0.116) and output dynamics (r = 0.120). At the same time, the share of agriculture in GDP decreased from 4.8% to 3.8% over the study period, despite total investments increasing by more than 2 times. MANCOVA's results confirmed a statistically significant impact of investments in the non-resource sector on productivity alone (p < 0.001), whereas the impact of investments directly in agriculture and of private investment was statistically insignificant. Thus, a gap has been identified between investment volume and economic returns, indicating a need to improve the effectiveness of investment policy and to focus on structural and technological factors in agricultural sector development.