Abstract
In the context of global decarbonization, the digitalization of the financial sector is becoming a key factor in the development of green finance and ensuring socially inclusive economic growth. The aim of the study is to assess the impact of digitalization of the financial sector on the development of green finance and its social effects in Kazakhstan and Central Asian countries. The methodological basis consists of system and comparative analysis, correlation and regression analysis, as well as scenario modeling. The empirical basis of the study is formed by data for the period 2015-2025, as well as a sample from 12 countries for cross-country analysis. The results of the study show a very strong positive relationship between the level of digitalization of the financial sector and the volume of green investments per capita (r = 0.988; R2 = 0.977; p < 0.001). Multiple regression revealed that the greatest contribution to the development of green finance is provided by the coverage of ESG regulation, followed by digitalization and financial inclusion. Scenario modeling has shown that upon reaching a high level of digital maturity, the volume of green bonds in Kazakhstan may increase from $2.8 billion to $14.2 billion by 2030, accompanied by the creation of up to 67,000 new “green” jobs. The results obtained confirm that digitalization is a necessary but insufficient condition for the development of green finance without appropriate institutional and regulatory support for ESG.