A Scenario-Based Continuous-Time Markov Framework for Preliminary Safety Screening of eVTOL Operations Under Climate, Battery, Power-Supply and Diagnostic Uncertainty

2026

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DOI 10.3390/electronics15132924
Data confidence 70 medium
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Abstract

This study examines the development of urban air mobility, which requires the creation of vertiports capable of ensuring the safe operation of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) systems. Key operational constraints include unstable power supply, external climatic conditions, and reliance on battery systems. This study aims to develop a risk-based model for vertiport planning those accounts for the stochastic nature of eVTOL operational safety. A continuous-time Markov model incorporating nominal operational characteristics, system constraints, and transitions into emergency and catastrophic flight modes is proposed. State transitions within the model are primarily driven by climatic indicators, power supply reliability, battery parameters, maintenance quality, and diagnostic coverage. To interpret the low probabilities of transitioning to a catastrophic mode, this study introduces a safety index (integrated safety index), which facilitates the comparison of various operational scenarios and regulatory maturity levels. The practical importance of the research lies in applying the proposed model to precisely select vertiport locations; assess energy infrastructure requirements; and organize onboard monitoring, robotic preflight inspection systems, and decision support systems. The results demonstrate that eVTOL operational safety is assessed not only through spatial and infrastructure metrics but also through an integrated indicator encompassing power supply, climate, battery degradation, diagnostics, and hardware–software reliability of the entire vertiport system.