Socio-Economic Aspects of the Energy Transition in Resource-Dependent Countries

Shalkar Boluspayev, Zhansaya Temerbulatova, Perizat Salibekova, A. Zh. Smatayeva

Qainar Journal of Social Science, 2026

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DOI 10.58732/2958-7212-2026-2-160-181
Data confidence 70 medium
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Abstract

In the context of the global energy transition, the development of renewable energy sources is of particular importance for resourcedependent countries seeking to reduce their dependence on raw materials and ensure sustainable socio-economic development. The purpose of the study is to assess the impact of renewable energy development on the economic diversification of resource-dependent economies using the examples of Kazakhstan, Norway and the United Arab Emirates. The methodological basis of the study was made up of descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and panel regression models with combined, fixed, and random effects. The initial data covers the period 2002-2021 and includes 60 panel observations. The results showed that the average value of the economic diversification index was 0.57, the share of renewable energy was 19.94%, oil rents were 13.88% of GDP, the human capital index was 3.25, and the quality of institutions was 66.43. Correlation analysis revealed a positive relationship between diversification and the quality of institutions (r=0.655) and GDP per capita (r=0.662). In the panel models, the development of renewable energy sources did not show a stable statistically significant effect on diversification, whereas oil rents had a negative effect in the fixed effects (β=-0.0046; p<0.01) and random effects (β=-0.0040; p<0.01) models. The results show that in resource-dependent countries, the development of renewable energy sources is important for economic diversification, but its effect is enhanced only by reducing oil dependence, developing human capital, and improving institutions.