Abstract
The article examines the vegetation dynamics of relic pine forests in the Abai region, located within the "Semey Ormany" State Forest Nature Reserve (SFNR). Remote sensing data and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were employed to assess the current state and analyze temporal changes in the forest massifs. To evaluate the vegetative condition of the forest ecosystems, median NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) maps were calculated and constructed for the period from 2000 to 2025 in 5-year increments. Based on the Jenks natural breaks algorithm, the vegetation cover was classified into six categories: ranging from degraded zones (-0.187…0.291) to zones of maximum bioproductivity (0.614…0.862). The statistical significance of the identified trends was verified and confirmed using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. The test results revealed a positive dynamic across all forest units (p<0.05), confirming the high regenerative potential of the forests. However, the impact of the 2023 wildfires led to a significant decline in vegetative activity, with a 24% decrease (from 0.50 to 0.38) in the Novoshulba branch and a 13% decrease (from 0.61 to 0.53) in the Borodulikha branch, indicating a localized ecological regression. Regarding growth rates and stability indicators, the highest growth was observed in the Borodulikha and Bukebay branches; average growth was recorded in the Dolon, Begen, and Kanonerka branches; while slow but stable growth was identified in the Zhanasemey and Morozov branches. The findings highlight the direct impact of aridization processes and extreme temperature fluctuations on the vegetative activity of relic pine forests. This geospatial analysis provides a framework for assessing the ecological resilience of Irtysh region forests under global warming conditions. The study holds practical significance for the formulation of regional environmental policies, including the development of forest conservation strategies and climate change adaptation plans.