Abstract
Kazakhstan is characterized by a critically low forest cover (approximately 5%), rendering the conservation of coniferous forests in the Kazakh Uplands a priority for environmental security. In Burabai National Park, the natural regeneration of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) occurs under arid climatic conditions and high recreational pressure, which diminishes the resilience of forest ecosystems. The aim of this study was to identify, based on monitoring data from 2019 to 2023, the factors limiting natural forest regeneration across various types of pine forests. The research was conducted on 20 permanent sample plots established in four forest types (ranging from very dry to moist). We analyzed inventory data, forest litter parameters, and the dynamics of seedling emergence, and performed a correlation analysis between the survival of natural regeneration and precipitation levels. It was found that the number of viable self-sown seedlings accounts for only 5.5–8.8% of the established standards, indicating that natural regeneration is critically inadequate. The principal barriers include moisture deficiency and excessive bedding depth (exceeding 2.8 cm), which prevents seedling roots from contacting the mineral soil horizon in stands with a relative stocking density of 0.7–1.0. These results underscore the need to transition from passive protection to active management measures. Soil mineralization and the regulation of relative stocking density are critical interventions for ensuring successful pine regeneration under the arid conditions prevailing in protected areas.