Abstract
The article presents a sociological analysis of ethno-confessional processes in the Republic of Kazakhstan based on comparative assessment of the national census data from 2009 and 2021. The study examines the dynamics of religious self-identification across ethnic groups and settlement types, identifying the key trends of secularization, urbanization, and religious diversification. The findings show that despite the overall demographic growth of the Muslim population, there has been observed a decline in declared religious affiliation within a number of traditionally religious communities. This is reflected in the growing share of respondents who do not indicate their religious affiliation, the weakening of the “ethnicity – religion” linkage, and the increasing complexity of religious self-identification mechanisms. The study results demonstrate a differentiated pattern of identified changes. A bipolar confessional structure is emerging among Tatars due to the strengthening of the Christian component; there is a notable increase in Islamic self-identification among the Korean population; and representatives of the German ethnic group show relative stabilization of confessional self-identification along with partial strengthening of Christian identity. The census data also indicate the expansion of Muslim identity among ethnic groups historically not associated with Islam, as well as a shift of religious dynamics toward urban areas. The transition to a more depersonalized survey format in 2021 significantly reduced the effect of social desirability and enabled a more accurate identification of latent non-confessional self-identification. The study concludes that there is a shift from an ethno-confessionally prescribed model of religious affiliation toward more flexible and individualized forms of self-identification, which can be interpreted as the emergence of a post-secular model of religiosity. The findings contribute to a deeper analytical understanding of contemporary ethno-confessional processes and may inform public policymaking in the field of interfaith relations and social cohesion.