QUANTIFYING THE SOCIAL IMPACT OF MORTGAGE LENDING PROJECTS IN KAZAKHSTAN: THE INSTITUTIONAL ROLE OF OTBASY BANK

J.S. Mukhamedov, Т. С. Сокира, Zebo Kuldasheva, Y. K. Barlykov

2026

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DOI 10.47649/vau.26.v80.i1.36
Data confidence 70 medium
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Abstract

Despite the large-scale implementation of state mortgage programs in Kazakhstan, the academic literature still lacks a formalized quantitative assessment of their overall social impact viewed as a portfolio of socially oriented projects that simultaneously incorporates macroeconomic conditions, housing affordability parameters, and the institutional role of key operators. Existing studies are mainly confined to separate indicators (interest rates, housing prices, HAI, lending volumes) and therefore do not allow a comprehensive evaluation of the effectiveness of project-based governance in the housing policy domain. The purpose of the article is to develop and test an integral index of the social effect of mortgage programs (ISEH). as a tool for quantifying the effectiveness of public housing policy, considered as a portfolio of interrelated projects, as well as to determine the impact of macroeconomic, price and institutional factors on housing affordability and social efficiency of mortgage lending in Kazakhstan. This study addresses this gap by developing and empirically testing an Integral Social Effect Index for mortgage programs interpreted as an interconnected set of projects within the framework of state housing policy. The index combines real household income, housing prices, mortgage interest rates, the share of non-performing loans, housing provision per capita, and an institutional component represented by the market share of Otbasy Bank as a development institution and project operator. The results indicate that the social outcomes of mortgage projects are primarily driven by income levels and housing price dynamics, while institutional coordination performed by Otbasy Bank also exerts a statistically significant influence, reflecting its systemically important and countercyclical role in managing the portfolio of housing projects. The observed convergence of ISEH values across regions confirms the effectiveness of centralized project management in reducing territorial disparities in housing access and in strengthening the sustainability of the social impact of state mortgage programs.