Abstract
This study assesses export concentration risk in four Central Asian economies (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) by examining trade specialization patterns in 31 mineral, chemical, textile, and metallurgical product groups over 2017–2024. Using a multi-index framework based on Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), Relative Trade Advantage (RTA), and the Lafay Index (LI), the paper distinguishes structurally embedded competitive advantages from export signals that are weak, import-dependent, or potentially transient. The revised analysis adds explicit data consistency checks, a clarified classification rule, and robustness tests based on sign concordance, majority-index rules, and RSCA-only thresholds. The results show that Central Asia’s risk profile is highly persistent but heterogeneous: Tajikistan is exposed to extreme single-commodity risk in aluminium and cotton-related segments; Kazakhstan remains vulnerable to mineral-fuel concentration and energy-price volatility; Uzbekistan has broader but still labour-intensive textile specialization; and Kyrgyzstan shows ambiguous competitiveness that may partly reflect re-export and transit-related trade. Fully competitive product groups are confined mainly to resource- and labour-intensive activities, while chemicals and technologically complex manufacturing remain non-competitive across the region. The findings support risk-differentiated policy responses, including commodity-price hedging, counter-cyclical stabilization tools, downstream processing, textile upgrading, and regional value-chain development.