Abstract
This paper examines the key balance-of-payments components influencing the dynamics of Kazakhstan’s national exchange rate during 2023–2025. The analysis relies on official macroeconomic statistics provided by the National Bank of Kazakhstan as well as data from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Particular attention is devoted to the interaction between the trade balance, the current account position, capital movements, foreign exchange market interventions, and the dynamics of international reserves. To assess the influence of these factors on exchange rate fluctuations, the study applies multivariate regression analysis combined with seasonal ARIMA time-series modelling, which makes it possible to capture both structural relationships between macroeconomic indicators and short-term cyclical dynamics. The empirical results indicate that the relative stability of the Kazakhstani tenge during the analysed period was largely maintained through transfers from the National Fund and active reserve management conducted by the National Bank. At the same time, the analysis demonstrates that the structural concentration of exports in a limited range of commodity products continues to represent a significant source of vulnerability for the national currency in the medium and long term. On the basis of the obtained results, the article formulates policy recommendations aimed at strengthening exchange-rate resilience through the diversification of export structure, the expansion of non-resource sectors, and the development of more balanced mechanisms of external economic adjustment.