Abstract
Wildfires are among the key drivers of transformation in boreal ecosystems; however, the mechanisms of postfire recovery in the arid regions of Eurasia remain insufficiently understood. The aim of this study was to identify the role of burn severity and associated edaphic and hydrological factors in shaping the natural regeneration trajectories of Scots pine forests in the Kostanay region of northern Kazakhstan. This study is based on the integration of field data on seedling regeneration and soil conditions with the analysis of long-term satellite-derived indices (NDVI, NDMI, and NBR). Sample plots were grouped according to fixed burn severity classes, which enabled a consistent statistical comparison and reduced the interpretative ambiguity that has characterized previous studies in the region. The results indicate that pine forest regeneration is most successful under low and moderate burn severity, where seed sources are preserved and favourable moisture conditions are maintained. In contrast, high burn severity leads to a reduction in regenerative potential and a shift in recovery trajectories toward deciduous or sparsely vegetated communities. The spectral indices derived from the remote sensing data strongly agreed with the field-based indicators, confirming their suitability for assessing postfire vegetation dynamics. Soil properties act as important modifying factors of recovery processes, particularly under conditions of limited water availability. These findings enhance the current understanding of postfire recovery mechanisms in the arid part of the boreal zone and highlight the need for differentiated management of postfire landscapes. The integration of field observations with remote sensing data provides a robust framework for monitoring and forecasting recovery processes under an increasingly intensified fire regime.