Abstract
In the context of accelerating digital transformation, quantification of the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the structural dynamics of resource–dependent economies is becoming particularly relevant. The purpose of the study is to develop and test an integrated dynamic model to quantify the impact of AI on Kazakhstan's structural transformation and diversification. The methodological framework includes the integration of the Bass model of innovation diffusion, an expanded production function with endogenous technological progress and the task-oriented Acemoglu–Restrepo approach, as well as a multi-criteria system of industry prioritisation. The empirical basis was based on industry data from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2020-2024. The simulation results show that for the period 2025-2035. The cumulative increase in gross value added in the analysed industries will amount to 35.3 p.p., of which 16.8 percentage points are attributable to AI. The level of AI adoption in priority sectors reaches 86.8–93.8 p.p by 2035, which exceeds the indicators of non-priority industries by 13-32 p.p. The share of priority industries in the GDP structure increases by 6.3 p.p, while total employment increases by 22.4 p.p (+1.3 million jobs). At the same time, across all sectors, there is a steady excess of the effect of creating new tasks over the effect of automation, reflecting the specifics of a resource-dependent economy with a shortage of qualified personnel. The results confirm the expediency of concentrating government support on a limited number of industries with the greatest potential for structural transformation.