Abstract
In the context of increasing macroeconomic instability and increasing credit risks, the analysis of the factors of formation of problem mortgage loans in the banking system is becoming particularly relevant. This study aims to develop and propose a conceptual project-based framework, the NPL Project Approach that conceptualizes the management of non-performing mortgage loans as an integrated project cycle. The methodological basis of the research consists of methods of descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and multiple regression modeling. The empirical basis of the study consists of data collected from the Bureau of National Statistics and the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan for the period 2020-2024, including indicators of household income, gross domestic product, inflation, interest rates, deposits and overdue debt. The analysis results show that the average level of problem loans in the European Union decreased from 2.6% in 2020 to 1.9% in 2024, reflecting an increase in the effectiveness of credit risk management systems. In Central Asian countries, the level of problem loans in Kazakhstan decreased from 6.9% in 2020 to 3.1% in 2024, indicating a partial improvement in the quality of the loan portfolio, but sensitivity to the growth of mortgage lending remains. The prospects for further research include empirical verification of the model based on case studies of emerging market banks, quantification of its impact on loan portfolio performance, as well as adaptation of the approach to other non-mortgage lending segments.