Abstract
The article examines the influence of institutional factors - government regulation, subsidies, cooperation and contract production - on the transformation of cotton farms in the context of modernization of the agro-industrial complex. An economic and mathematical analysis with an integral index of institutional impact and regression modeling allowed us to quantify the contribution of each factor to the profitability of farms, technological efficiency and the stability of the structural links of the industry. The results show that government regulation and subsidies increase profitability by 15-18%, while cooperation and contract manufacturing increase technological efficiency by 12-14% and strengthen inter-farm relations, ensuring a comprehensive growth of key industry indicators by 18-20%. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the development of an integral model tool for quantifying institutional factors and identifying the mechanisms of their influence on the economic and structural indicators of cotton production.