GEOECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF KAZAKHSTAN’S FOREIGN POLICY TOWARDS THE SOUTH CAUCASUS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MIDDLE CORRIDOR

M.Ye. Shakirova, Syrym Parpiyev, Nuriddin Sultanmuratov

2026

Closed access Metadata (CSL-JSON)
DOI 10.48371/ismo.2026.63.1.001
Data confidence 70 medium
How this score is calculated

It is built from checkable properties of the record itself: whether the article has a DOI, how many independent sources confirmed its data, whether the required fields are filled in, and how recent the latest confirmation is. Disagreement between sources and a missing identifier lower it. A value of 80 or above means the record was published without further checking; 60 to 79 means it is published at reduced confidence, with a manual check advisable. A record verified by an editor by hand is never pushed below 90 by a recalculation. This scores our data about the article, not the article itself.

Abstract

This article examines how geoeconomic factors associated with the development of the Middle Corridor have influenced Kazakhstan’s foreign policy towards the South Caucasus between 2010 and 2025. Treating corridor-building as a structural shift in available connectivity options, the study conceptualises Kazakhstan’s regional behaviour across two empirically traceable domains: connectivity diplomacy outputs (initiatives, agreements, and routinised consultations that enhance transit performance) and conflict positioning outputs (official narratives, legal framing, and diplomatic signalling regarding regional disputes). Using qualitative content analysis of secondary documentary sources, the article identifies key determinants shaping policy choice, including corridor efficiency and market access; infrastructure vulnerability and chokepoints; diversification and resilience objectives; stakeholder embedding across public-private and external partners; and institutional constraints that delimit feasible commitments. The findings show that corridor-driven interdependence intensifies Kazakhstan’s engagement with transit nodes through pragmatic, performance-oriented diplomacy, while simultaneously encouraging cautious and legally framed positioning on Armenia-Azerbaijan tensions to avoid reputational and operational risks. These patterns are interpreted through multivector hedging and complex balancing, producing a domain-specific vector hierarchy in which corridor functionality is prioritised without implying wholesale political alignment. The study contributes an operationally grounded framework for linking geoeconomic connectivity to observable foreign-policy behaviour in a conflict-sensitive transit region.