Abstract
Study region Central Asia. Study focus Climate change has intensified drought events in Central Asia, threatening vegetation dynamics and ecosystem stability. Maximum drought-induced vegetation loss (MDVL) serves as a key metric for quantifying ecosystem resistance and resilience, yet its spatiotemporal patterns and underlying driving mechanisms remain unclear. Leveraging decades of kernel normalized difference vegetation index (kNDVI), leaf area index (LAI), and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) datasets, this study systematically reveals the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of MDVL and its driving mechanisms across Central Asia by combining random forest regression with SHAP interpretability analyses. New hydrological insights for the region MDVL has exhibited a significant decreasing trend since 1992 (more negative values indicate greater vegetation loss). Soil moisture during the resistance period is the dominant factor driving MDVL variations across Central Asia, accounting for the primary contribution of 54–70% for the study area. Higher soil moisture significantly alleviates the severity of vegetation loss. Temperature during the resistance period exhibits a non-monotonic relationship with MDVL, where extreme high or low values exacerbate vegetation loss. Other factors, including drought intensity, drought duration, and soil texture, show limited explanatory power.