Abstract
In the context of increasing regional differentiation and the digital transformation of the economy, there is a growing need to quantify the factors driving regional economic growth. The purpose of the study is to quantify the impact of human capital, innovation activity, social conditions, and the dynamics of world oil prices on the economic growth of Kazakhstan's regions. The methodological basis of the study is a panel model with fixed effects within the catch-up growth framework, along with spatial econometric methods to account for interregional spillovers. The assessment results show that the most significant growth factors are oil prices and innovation activity. The simulation results show that a 1% increase in world oil prices raises the GRP growth rate by an average of 0.48%, with an effect of 0.54% for oil-producing regions and 0.44% for other regions. Expenditures on technological innovations have a positive and statistically significant impact of β = 2.15 (p < 0.01), with interregional innovation spillovers of β = 11.8 (p < 0.01). The contribution of healthcare is also significant ((β = 5.66, p < 0.05), whereas expenditures on R&D, education and investments in fixed assets did not show a statistically significant shortterm effect. A high correlation has been established between the dynamics of world oil prices and the average growth of regional GRP (r = 0.87). At the same time, expenditures on R&D, education, and fixed capital investments do not show a statistically significant shortterm effect. The results obtained confirm the dominant role of the oil factor and the importance of innovative spillovers as key drivers of regional economic growth.