BREAK-EVEN CONVERSION THRESHOLDS FOR MINING WASTE REVERSE SUPPLY CHAINS

Mariya Li, Antonio Maffei, Gulmira Mukhanova

2026

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DOI 10.53364/24138614_2026_40_1_7
Data confidence 70 medium
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Abstract

Reverse supply chains (RSCs) have been increasingly promoted as a mechanism for improving resource efficiency and reducing environmental impacts in mining industries. However, in emerging economies such as Kazakhstan, the economic feasibility of mining waste recycling remains uncertain due to long transportation distances, high operational costs, and limited processing infrastructure. While previous studies have demonstrated the potential of optimization-based reverse logistics models, conversion efficiency is commonly treated as an assumed or fixed parameter rather than a critical feasibility condition. This limits the practical applicability of existing models for decision-makers. This study addresses this gap by conducting a threshold (break-even) analysis to identify the minimum conversion efficiency required for reverse supply chain operations to achieve economic viability in Kazakhstan’s mining sector. Building upon an established reverse supply chain cost structure, the proposed approach evaluates system profitability across a range of conversion efficiency levels under alternative logistics scenarios. The analysis focuses on the relationship between conversion efficiency and aggregated cost drivers, including transportation, processing, and fixed operational costs. The results demonstrate that reverse supply chain feasibility is highly sensitive to conversion efficiency and that profitability can only be achieved once a clearly defined conversion threshold is exceeded. Below this threshold, improvements in logistics efficiency alone are insufficient to offset total system costs. The findings highlight conversion efficiency as a dominant strategic parameter in early-stage reverse supply chain planning for mining waste recycling. By explicitly defining conversion efficiency thresholds, this study provides a practical decision-support tool for policymakers and industry stakeholders. The results contribute to the development of economically grounded reverse supply chain strategies and support the transition toward sustainable and circular mining practices in Kazakhstan.