Abstract
Today, the impact of climate change on agriculture is increasing and there is a need to rethink the role of rural infrastructure as a key factor in the sustainability and adaptive potential of the agricultural sector. The aim of the study is to assess the impact of rural infrastructure development on the sustainability of agriculture in Kazakhstan, taking into account regional differentiation and climatic factors. The methodological basis of the research includes methods of descriptive statistics, comparative analysis and econometric modeling. Panel data from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan on five macro-regions of Kazakhstan for 2010-2025 were used. The results showed that there is a stable positive relationship between infrastructure development and agricultural sustainability. In the basic model, an increase in the infrastructure index by 1 unit leads to an increase in the sustainability index by 0.58 (β = 0.58; R2 = 0.81). The extended model has a higher explanatory power and shows that the greatest impact is exerted by water infrastructure (β = 0.34), followed by digital (β = 0.29) and transport (β = 0.17) components. The regional analysis revealed a significant differentiation: the maximum values of sustainability are observed in the Northern macroregion, while the Western macroregion remains the most vulnerable. The results obtained confirm that rural infrastructure acts as a systemic mechanism for adaptation to climate change, but its effectiveness is determined by its structural balance and regional conditions. The greatest effect is achieved with the integrated development of water, digital and transport infrastructure.