National Features of Food Security Organization: The Grain Sector Model in Kazakhstan, Its Strengths and Weaknesses

V. N. Uteulin, S. M. Zhiyentayev

2026

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DOI 10.1111/jfpe.70420
Data confidence 70 medium
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Abstract

ABSTRACT The study examines how food security operates at the national level in the Republic of Kazakhstan, using the grain sector as a focal case. The analysis responds to a gap in empirical research that connects agricultural investment, grain production trends, and food price behavior within one food security framework. The study relies on national statistical data from Kazakhstan for the period 2015–2023. The analysis applies descriptive statistics, trend analysis, and correlation assessment to gross grain and legume harvests, per capita consumption of staple foods, fixed capital investment in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, agricultural lending volumes, and food price inflation. A SWOT analysis complements the quantitative results and places them within existing institutional and market conditions. The findings show a general rise in grain and legume output over the study period, alongside marked year‐to‐year volatility. Consumption data confirm the central role of grain‐based foods in household diets. Correlation results show a strong statistical association between fixed capital investment in agriculture‐related sectors and food price inflation ( R 2 = 0.9238). The relationship reflects structural co‐movement rather than direct causation. The SWOT analysis highlights key strengths of Kazakhstan's grain sector, including high production capacity, export potential, developed infrastructure, and state support. At the same time, it reveals ongoing weaknesses linked to climate exposure, narrow production structure, and transport and logistics limits. The study offers an integrated empirical view of food security in Kazakhstan that links production, investment, and price dynamics within a single system‐based approach. The results inform policy discussions on grain sector resilience and national food security. Stable investment conditions, technological renewal, and effective risk management emerge as central priorities. The analysis also creates a basis for future research using advanced econometric methods and cross‐country comparison.