Socioeconomic Interventions for WHO’s End TB Strategy Targets: Insights from SIR Modelling in Kazakhstan

Temirlan Ukubayev, Berik Koichubekov, Marina Sorokina, Donatas Austys

2026

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DOI 10.3390/ijerph23030351
Data confidence 70 medium
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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis remains a major global public health challenge. Mathematical models are essential for strategic planning and evaluation of tuberculosis control programs, while addressing socioeconomic risk factors has proven key to accelerating incidence declines. Therefore, this study quantitatively assesses the impact of socioeconomic interventions on tuberculosis incidence in Kazakhstan. METHODS: A modified SIR compartmental model was developed in Python 3.12 to simulate tuberculosis transmission dynamics. Parameters were calibrated using the Nelder-Mead simplex algorithm, and predictive performance was evaluated via hold-out validation. Scenario-based projections were generated to explore the impact of socioeconomic improvements on future tuberculosis incidence. RESULTS: The calibrated SIR model demonstrated strong predictive accuracy, achieving a mean absolute percentage error of 2.3%. The sensitivity analysis revealed that the model is robust to moderate socioeconomic perturbations, with healthcare funding and unemployment rate as the primary uncertainty drivers. Scenario simulations showed that enhanced financial assistance for tuberculosis patients produced the largest effect beyond baseline. Optimization results indicate that 7.4% rise in GDP per capita, 10.2% increase in healthcare funding, 23.1% and 19.1% reductions in poverty and unemployment rates, and 40.2% growth in tuberculosis patient financial support relative to 2024 are sufficient to achieve the WHO's End TB Strategy 2030 target. CONCLUSIONS: The model offers a valuable tool for tuberculosis forecasting and intervention evaluation, highlighting the synergistic role of socioeconomic measures in achieving global elimination goals.