Abstract
ABSTRACT This study analyses the paradox of state resilience under incompetent governance. The work substantiates the hypothesis that the resilience of political systems is ensured not by the efficiency of leadership but by institutional inertia, social adaptivity and societal stratification. A nonlinear mathematical model of the dynamics of state resilience is constructed, taking into account the factors of managerial incompetence, societal adaptivity, institutional memory and external stochastic disturbances. Numerical simulations are performed via the Monte Carlo method, and the phase transitions of resilience are analysed. Special attention is given to the role of the middle class as an attractor of stability, and the structure of ‘meaningless resilience’ is described, in which the state maintains order despite managerial degradation. Philosophical and systemic aspects of the phenomenon of institutional immortality are discussed. The key results demonstrate that state resilience can be interpreted as a function of the structural connectedness of society and the inertia of institutions rather than the quality of governance. This work reveals the fundamental mechanisms of the long‐term stability of political systems under conditions of managerial competence degradation.