Wind Power Forecasting Based on Time Series Autoregressive Moving Average Model Taking into Account the Effect of Wind Speed Dispersion

2026

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DOI 10.30919/ee2025
Data confidence 70 medium
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Abstract

The increasing penetration of wind power into modern power systems introduces operational challenges due to the inherent variability and uncertainty of wind-driven generation.This study aims to develop and validate a probabilistically consistent short-term wind power forecasting framework that explicitly accounts for wind speed dispersion and forecast uncertainty.The scientific novelty of