Abstract
Women’s entrepreneurship in Kazakhstan has undergone a notable transformation in recent years, yet existing research has not fully captured how structural gender conditions shape these changes. This paper examines the evolution of women-led micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) and the broader gendered economic environment between 2019 and 2024. The study employs time-series modelling, a structural break test, and a composite index approach, using national gender-disaggregated data from the Kazakhstan Statistical Compendium. Descriptive and econometric analyses reveal a significant regime shift in 2022: women-led MSMEs increased sharply, and the estimated model identifies a statistically meaningful break in both the level and growth rate of entrepreneurial activity. To assess whether this shift reflects a broader structural change, the paper develops the Composite Entrepreneurship Gender Index (CEGI), integrating five indicators—entrepreneurial participation, managerial representation, unemployment, wage inequality, and MSME growth. The index shows a transition from negative values in 2019–2021 to strongly positive values in 2022–2024, indicating improvements in structural opportunity conditions. These findings suggest that post-pandemic restructuring, targeted state support, and rapid digitalisation collectively expanded women’s pathways into entrepreneurship. The study highlights the importance of combining statistical modelling with gender-sensitive indicators to understand the systemic transformation of Kazakhstan’s entrepreneurial landscape.