Abstract
The article examines the issues of forecasting the volumes of organic waste generated in the production process at school canteens in Astana city, as well as assessing the potential for their processing into biogas and compost. The research aims to analyze the dynamics of organic waste fraction accumulation and determine opportunities for its rational use in the period 2025–2030. Initial data include statistics on the number of students and calculated waste generation volumes based thereon. The prognostic model was built using MATLAB tools, which allowed identifying a trend of steady growth in the amount of organic waste by 2030. A direct dependence between the increase in the number of students and waste volumes was established, reflecting the need to improve processing systems. Additionally, an assessment of the potential use of waste for biogas and compost production was conducted. For comparison, the German experience is presented, where similar programs for processing organic waste in municipal and educational sectors have shown significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and an increase in the share of renewable energy sources. The research results demonstrate that the introduction of similar approaches in Kazakhstan can significantly enhance the environmental sustainability of school infrastructure. The application of mathematical modeling confirmed the effectiveness of digital tools in forecasting and planning environmentally safe waste management technologies.