Abstract
Tourism is increasingly regarded as a strategic instrument for economic diversification and regional development; however, in many emerging economies, growth in tourist arrivals does not always translate into proportional economic gains. This study examines the sustainable development of domestic tourism in Kazakhstan by analyzing revenue efficiency, structural constraints, and productivity-related factors. Using national statistical data for the period 2014–2024, a log–log regression model estimated by ordinary least squares was applied to assess the elasticity of tourism revenue with respect to tourist flows and investment in tourism-related fixed assets. The results indicate a moderate positive elasticity of tourism revenue with respect to tourist arrivals (0.56), suggesting that increases in visitor numbers lead to relatively modest income growth. In contrast, investment in tourism-related fixed assets exhibits a short-term negative elasticity (0.39), indicating that additional investment does not immediately translate into higher revenue, likely due to adjustment lags. Sectoral analysis shows that tourism revenues are heavily concentrated in transport and accommodation services, while higher value-added activities remain underdeveloped. These findings imply that policy should shift from volume-oriented growth toward diversification, productivity enhancement, and the development of higher value-added tourism activities, thereby strengthening tourism’s contribution to sustainable economic growth in Kazakhstan.