The role of social media in the electoral preferences of first-time voters: a study based on the U.S. presidential elections

A.S. Kaimbekova, A. B. Akynbekova, Kuralay Bashanova, Zhadyra Almish

Herald of journalism, 2025

Full text Open access: Gold Metadata (CSL-JSON)
DOI 10.26577/hj202578411
Data confidence 70 medium
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Abstract

The research studies the impact of social media consumption on the voting behavior of first-time voters during the U.S. presidential elections. With the development of main sources of political communication – such as Facebook, Twitter and Reddit – this paper explores how political awareness, social influence and voting incentives are shaped by mentioned digital platforms among first-time voters. The purpose of this paper is to conduct an elaborative data analysis on the correlation between social media activity and voting preferences, particularly determining the predictive effect of different engagement levels on the choice of a political candidate. The scientific significance of the paper includes quantification of social media engagement’s impact on voting behavior and showcasing its statistical image, which enriches the area of political communication. The paper’s practical significance consists of producing insights for political strategists, journalists and civic educators about digital mobilization strategies, which can contribute to the development of political campaigns on social media platforms. The study adopts a quantitative methodology utilizing the American National Election Studies 2020 dataset, also by applying regression analysis to explore the correlation between social media habits (frequency and political posting) and voting behavior among first-time voters. Results showed positive correlation between active usage of Twitter/Reddit and voting for the Democratic candidate, while Facebook usage, in contrast, indicated a nonsignificant influence. The value of the study is to facilitate the understanding of digital political socialization and to generate empirical evidence of how online engagement reflects electoral outcomes. Practical value of the results presents guidance for potential digital campaign strategies and civic engagement programs.