Abstract
Global economic instability necessitates examining how financial crises affect inflation, particularly in resource-dependent economies such as Kazakhstan. Strongly tied to raw material exports and global markets, Kazakhstan is highly vulnerable to external shocks. This study quantifies the impact of global shocks on inflation using time series data from 2015–2025 and econometric modelling with non-linear and lagged variables. This article contributes to the existing literature by identifying the nonlinear and lagged transmission channels of global shocks and by evaluating their implications for Kazakhstan’s monetary policy. The analysis focuses on oil prices, exchange rates, and the volatility index (VIX). Results show that commodity shocks and currency fluctuations are the main drivers of inflation. A $1 per-barrel increase in oil prices raises inflation by 0.27% within six months, while currency depreciation intensifies inflationary pressures. Both exchange rate volatility and the VIX reveal threshold effects, shifting from stabilising to inflationary at higher levels. Findings highlight the need for macroeconomic policies that consider time lags and non-linearities to enhance resilience against global shocks.