Abstract
In Kazakhstan’s Akmola Region, rural households face heightened vulnerability from climate change, driven by reliance on weather-dependent resources and amplified risks of extreme precipitation events, prolonged dry spells, and progressive soil degradation—further intensified by limited adaptive capacity and inequities affecting women-led or ethnic minority families. This study conducted stratified household surveys across four agricultural districts, developed a tailored Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) incorporating shelterbelt presence, condition, and perceived effects, alongside readiness for hydrological surface recovery (contour–strip organisation, swales/valokany, and tree–shrub planting). Results revealed an average LVI of 0.45–0.55, which was higher (+10–15%) in marginalized groups; testing pathways showed correlations (r = 0.65, p < 0.05) with water security, soil condition, income stability, and hazard reduction, with potential LVI reductions of 15–25% through integrated measures. District-specific recommendations include implementing the Potapenko–Lukin method on slopes <5% with valokany (width 80 cm, depth 1.5 m, spacing 100–500 m), endemic plantings, and biomaterial, supported by subsidies (488,028 tenge/ha/year) and GIS monitoring, to enhance resilience and equity in steppe and forest–steppe farming.