Demographic development of Kazakhstan's regions: current trends and future prospects

2025

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DOI 10.52821/2789-4401-2025-5-30-46
Data confidence 70 medium
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Abstract

Demographic processes are closely linked to economic problems, which is especially evident in the regions of Kazakhstan. Thus, population and labour force development trends are often not considered when developing programmes for the economic development of areas. The purpose of the study is to forecast the demographic situation in the regions of Kazakhstan, taking into account the peculiarities of their socio-economic development. Forecasts of the size and structure of the population are developed based on an analysis of trends in demographic processes and their cause-and-effect relationships with socio-economic processes. Data from the Bureau of National Statistics and the 2021 Population Census were used for calculations. For future calculations of the age-sex structure of the population, the method of moving age groups was used, which allows us to simultaneously take into account the impact of changes in both the age-sex structure of the population and fertility and mortality trends. The main result is the receipt of reliable and high-quality data on the size and composition of the population of the country's regions based on the study and analysis of quantitative and qualitative patterns of phenomena and processes occurring in the age-sex composition of the population. Studying patterns of change in the age and sex structure of the population as a result of fertility, mortality, and migration processes will allow an assessment of the differences that exist at the regional level for regional planning and decision-making on the appropriate allocation of resources in areas such as education, health, and social security.