Abstract
Annotation. The transition of hotel organizations to a qualitatively new level of development can be ensured by the formation and use of an innovative development strategy. The article attempts to form a model for choosing a scenario for the innovative development of hotel organizations based on the ratio of indicators of innovative sustainability and innovative potential. Scenario selection involves the use of indicative management tools, as well as factorial and scenario modeling. Considering the directions of innovative development, the author implies conscious interrelated actions, rules and principles for developing long-term plans for changing the innovative activity of hotel organizations, which are based on the use of new technologies and management methods, continuous search, creation, implementation and commercialization of innovations in order to ensure leadership positions and competitive advantages on the market. Based on the statistical data of three hotel organizations, the article attempts to build a model for choosing the direction of their innovative development. The following indicators were used for the calculation: innovation potential, innovation sustainability and intensity of innovation activity. Key words: scenario modeling, innovative development, matrix, innovative potential, innovative sustainability, hotel organizations, innovation intensity.