Abstract
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 continues to expand globally, posing a growing threat to wildlife, poultry, and humans. Kazakhstan, located at the intersection of the Central Asian, West Asian–East African, and Black Sea-Mediterranean flyways, includes extensive wetlands and supports large populations of migratory waterbirds, making it a critical area for HPAI surveillance. This study provides a spatio-temporal risk assessment and a weighted priority list of wild bird species potentially involved in HPAI dynamics in Kazakhstan. Using eBird records (2019–2023), we compiled 25,828 georeferenced observations representing 137 species identified as risk taxa based on global HPAI evidence, ecological traits, and taxonomic similarity. A semi quantitative scoring framework integrating ecological risk group, local abundance, and documented HPAI infection ranked species into high (n=38), moderate (n=76), and precautionary (n=23) priority levels. Temporal analyses revealed pronounced peaks in high-risk groups during the spring (April–June) and autumn (September–November) seasons. Spatial and spatio temporal analyses highlighted recurrent hotspots in central (Akmola/Tselinograd), western (Caspian coastal oblasts), and southeastern (Almaty/Alakol Lake) Kazakhstan, with seven statistically significant clusters identifying discrete surveillance windows during migration and breeding. This framework emphasizes the importance of integrating citizen science data with eco-epidemiological criteria and spatial modeling to inform targeted surveillance. By generating a prioritized list of wild bird species potentially involved in HPAI dynamics for surveillance and delineating sentinel regions, our findings provide a foundation for risk-based monitoring and early warning systems for HPAI in Kazakhstan, with clear applicability to other countries situated along major migratory flyways.