Abstract
This study analyzes the vulnerability of recreational landscapes in the Sharyn River basin (Almaty Region, Kazakhstan) to landslides. The area, known for its tourism potential and geomorphological diversity, faces increasing threats due to slope instability. The aim of the research is to assess geomorphological and hydrological factors contributing to landslide risk and develop a comprehensive spatial model. Using GIS and remote sensing tools, a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was created. The basin was divided into altitude zones, and slope gradient and exposure were analyzed. A landslide risk map was produced, classifying areas into low, medium, and high-risk zones. Slope stability was assessed using the Factor of Safety (FS), integrating soil type, moisture, and slope conditions. To enhance risk evaluation, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to combine multiple spatial and environmental criteria. The Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) was derived from satellite imagery to map surface moisture and assess spatio-temporal humidity dynamics. NDWI helped refine FS results and indicated that high-risk areas were associated with steep slopes, north-facing exposures, and high soil moisture. Lower-altitude areas showed seasonal variability in humidity, influencing instability. The integration of NDWI and AHP improved the accuracy of landslide susceptibility mapping and the prioritization of vulnerable zones. The results confirm that geomorphological structure and hydrological factors jointly control landslide processes. This integrated approach supports early warning, spatial planning, and risk reduction in mountainous recreational regions. The findings are essential for sustainable tourism development and regional safety strategies. The methodology can be adapted for other vulnerable landscapes with similar natural and socioeconomic characteristics.