Assessing the Impact of Demographic Growth on the Educational Infrastructure for Sustainable Regional Development: Forecasting Demand for Preschool and Primary School Enrollment in Kazakhstan

2025

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DOI 10.3390/su17094212
Data confidence 70 medium
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Abstract

Balanced socio-demographic development is essential for regional resilience and sustainable growth. Forecasting social and demographic processes in the region based on the use of Business Intelligence systems allows for the consideration of a wide range of contradictory and diverse factors and the anticipation of potential scenarios and risks of development. Business Intelligence systems are used for the collection, analysis, and processing of large volumes of data to support decision-making in business, finance, logistics, public administration, and other fields. The goal of the study is to assess the effectiveness of using Business Intelligence systems and geographic information systems (GIS) to achieve balanced socio-demographic development in Kazakhstan. Key indicators include demographic metrics and social infrastructure. The methodology involves the use of analytical platforms such as Power BI and ArcGIS, along with predictive models for forecasting current and future demographic changes. The outcome of the study is a tool for calculating the load on the social infrastructure of Kazakhstan's regions, enabling informed management decisions at the regional level to ensure resilience and balanced socio-demographic growth. Conclusions: The study demonstrates that Business Intelligence systems, integrated with GIS, have significant potential for improving the accuracy of socio-demographic forecasting.