Abstract
This article examines risk management issues in Kazakhstan’s fuel and energy complex (FEC). The study aims to identify the current level of risks in the sector and propose measures to mitigate them. The working hypothesis suggests that the use of scenario modeling and diversification tools can ensure effective management of both external and internal risks in the FEC. The research involved a review of modern works by Kazakhstani and international authors, along with the analysis of up-to-date data from 2024. The findings reveal that the key risk factors for the FEC include high dependence on oil and gas exports, global market price volatility, infrastructure and transit limitations, and instability in regulatory policy. Scenario analysis methods were applied to assess changes in production capacity and financial indicators under various conditions. The article reviews modern literature, creates risk maps of the Kazakhstan FEC based on new data for 2024, and analyzes factors affecting the level of risk through possible scenarios. Based on the analysis, the study justifies the need for sectoral diversification, development of renewable energy, implementation of long-term strategies, and improvement of corporate governance mechanisms. The recommendations provided in the article aim to enhance Kazakhstan’s energy security and ensure the sustainable development of the sector.