Abstract
The analysis of panel data on twenty-one regions of Kazakhstan for the period 2015−2024 revealed stable patterns that determine the effectiveness of agriculture in the context of structural modernization of the economy. The use of several regression models provided a comprehensive review of the impact of human capital, government subsidies, innovation, investment environment, exports, and digitalization processes on the productivity dynamics of the agricultural sector. The results showed that human capital, innovation, government support, and export orientation are key factors in improving efficiency. The impact of digitalization turned out to be contradictory, which is explained by the heterogeneity of regional development, differences in the level of technological readiness, and the time gap between the introduction of innovations and their economic effect. The introduction of interactive variables made it possible to record the mutual strengthening of the action of human and technological factors that form a steady increase in productivity. The established dependencies confirm the need for a systematic approach to agricultural policy, where the development of digital infrastructure, the improvement of institutional mechanisms, and the strengthening of human resources are considered as interrelated areas of modernization. The results obtained can serve as an analytical basis for the development of effective regional strategies aimed at increasing the competitiveness and long-term sustainability of agriculture in Kazakhstan.