Abstract
Since the forecasting of general economic income in diversified industries has a number of peculiarities associated with the presence and nature of the stochastic relationship of production and economic indicators, as well as the uncertainty of production and market conditions of the planning year, to calculate the forecast values of marginal income in this article is used the method of forecasting, which uses the principles of expert judgment in combination with probabilistic analysis of historical data and assumes the correction of historical data The model was tested on the materials of agrarian production of one of the largest agricultural regions of the country - North-Kazakhstan region. To calculate the forecast values of marginal income of agricultural crops of commercial crop production of the North-Kazakhstan region, historical data on yields, variable costs and prices of realization of agricultural products of the region were used. In general, the development of such models, their testing and practical application are justified in solving the problems of forecasting and analysis of consequences from the implementation of regional and national agricultural economic programs. Keywords: yields, crop production, variable costs, marginal revenue, inflation, subsidies, simulation model, forecasting