Abstract
In the rapidly evolving real estate market, the application of machine learning (ML) is crucial for understanding and predicting price trends. This study evaluates and compares seven ML models, including multiple linear regression, random forest regression, support vector regression (SVR), decision tree regression, and XGBoost, to determine the most effective predictor of real estate prices in Astana, Kazakhstan. The study focuses on the Yesil district, a key area in the city, utilizing a dataset of over 9,000 records extracted from a broader collection of more than 30,000 real estate transactions across Kazakhstan. Through rigorous experimentation, model performance was assessed using statistical metrics such as mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and the coefficient of determination (R-squared). The results indicate that the Random Forest Regressor and XGBRegressor models outperformed others, achieving the highest R-squared values (99.55% and 99.18%, respectively) and the lowest MAE and RMSE values. These findings highlight their robustness in predicting housing prices with high accuracy. The primary objective of this study was to develop a precise ML model capable of accurately forecasting real estate prices in Astana based on key market attributes. The superior predictive performance of the Random Forest and XGBRegressor models justifies their selection for deployment in real-world applications. Their high predictive accuracy suggests their potential utility for real estate professionals, policymakers, and investors seeking data-driven insights into market dynamics. This research expands knowledge on the applications of ML in the real estate sector, reinforcing the importance of evidence-based decision-making within the industry.