OPTIMIZING TIME SERIES FORECASTING: LEVERAGING MACHINE LEARNING MODELS FOR ENHANCED PREDICTIVE ACCURACY

Waldemar Wójcik, Assem Shayakhmetova, Ardak Akhmetova, Assel A. Abdildayeva, Galymzhan Baurzhanuly Nurtugan

2024

Full text Open access: Gold Metadata (CSL-JSON)
DOI 10.35784/iapgos.6295
Data confidence 70 medium
How this score is calculated

It is built from checkable properties of the record itself: whether the article has a DOI, how many independent sources confirmed its data, whether the required fields are filled in, and how recent the latest confirmation is. Disagreement between sources and a missing identifier lower it. A value of 80 or above means the record was published without further checking; 60 to 79 means it is published at reduced confidence, with a manual check advisable. A record verified by an editor by hand is never pushed below 90 by a recalculation. This scores our data about the article, not the article itself.

Abstract

Engaging in investment activities plays a crucial and strategic role in fostering the growth of businesses and ensuring their resilience in the market. This involvement entails expenditures on acquiring assets, embracing technological advancements, expanding production capacities, conducting research and development, among various other domains. Collectively, these aspects form the foundation for the sustained success of an organization over the long term. This thesis will delve into an exploration of leveraging machine learning techniques to forecast key parameters in business, including investments and their impact on the financial health of the company. In this research, explored a variety of time series models and identified that both the Random Forest Regressor and Decision Tree Regressor models deliver superior accuracy, showcasing identical RMSE values of 88.36 on the validation dataset. Furthermore, the Cat Boost and Light GBM models exhibited praiseworthy performance, registering RMSE values of 92.47 and 104.69, respectively. These findings highlight the robust performance of Random Forest Regressor and Decision Tree Regressor, emphasizing their capability to provide accurate predictions. It is noted that Random Forest Regressor and Decision Tree Regressor are distinguished by high accuracy in time series forecasting, and the choice between them should take into account the trade-offs between computational efficiency and interpretability of the model. These results allow us to propose practical strategies for managing investment resources to ensure the sustainable development and prosperity of the enterprise in the long term.