Abstract
Background/Objectives: This study aims to analyze antibiotic consumption trends from 2014 to 2023 in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Russia; forecast future trends up to 2030; and identify key social and economic factors influencing antibiotic use. Methods: Data on antibiotic consumption were obtained from the World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe Antimicrobial Consumption Network. Social and economic indicators were sourced from the World Bank DataBank. Of the 86 factors initially considered, 35 were included in the analyses. The forecast modeling of antibiotic consumption trends until 2030 and linear regression analysis to assess associations between antibiotic consumption and its predictors were conducted via SPSS. Results: The lowest antibiotic consumption rates were observed in Kazakhstan and Russia, whereas Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan presented higher rates. The projected antibiotic consumption rates are expected to decline only in Kazakhstan, with other countries remaining stable. Birth and death rates, as well as under-five mortality rates, were significant determinants of antibiotic consumption in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. In Russia, per capita GDP was a key determinant, whereas in Kazakhstan, inflation in consumer prices played a significant role. Additionally, cereal production was significantly associated with antibiotic consumption in Kazakhstan. In Kyrgyzstan and Russia, measles immunization rates were important determinants, whereas in Kyrgyzstan, access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking was significantly associated with antibiotic consumption. Conclusions: The findings of this study provide valuable insights for strengthening antimicrobial stewardship programs by addressing key social and economic determinants of antibiotic use.