Аннотация
The State of the Nation Addresses (SONA) are the most authoritative form of presidential communication in the Republic of Kazakhstan. They outline the president’s position on key national priorities and present the government’s medium-term policy agenda. This study analyses 28 SONAs delivered between 1997 and 2024 using structural topic modeling and sentiment analysis to examine the interplay between speech content, sentiment, and the country’s macroeconomic conditions. We identify nine core topics, with industrial development emerging as the most popular one, rising from under 1% in 1999 to over 42% in 2023. President Tokayev emphasizes reforms and democracy, while President Nazarbayev placed greater focus on national identity. We find that GDP is significantly associated with prevalence of multiple topics, suggesting that economic performance shapes rhetorical priorities. Sentiment analysis reveals a consistent positive–neutral–positive arc within speeches, with similar tones in the openings and conclusions. These findings are interpreted through the lens of spin dictator theory, suggesting that presidential rhetoric functions as a responsive instrument of authoritarian legitimation, calibrated to macroeconomic conditions. Our results suggest that changes in presidential rhetoric can serve as an early indicator of shifting policy priorities and regime responses to evolving socioeconomic conditions.